World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage

Nov 20, 2024 at 12am UK

Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos

Chile
4 - 2
Venezuela

Vargas (20', 20'), Rincon (29' og., 29' og.), Cepeda (38', 38', 47', 47')
Vidal (37'), Vidal (37')

FT(HT: 6-4)

Savarino (13', 13'), Ramirez (22', 22')
Aramburu (43'), Aramburu (43'), Angel (78'), Angel (78'), Andres Martinez (85'), Andres Martinez (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Chile and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chile

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Peru 0-0 Chile
Saturday, November 16 at 1.30am in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	11	13	22
2	Uruguay	11	8	19
3	Colombia	11	6	19
4	Ecuador	11	6	19
5	Brazil	11	6	17
6	Paraguay	11	1	16
7	Venezuela	11	-2	12
8	Bolivia	11	-14	12
9	Peru	11	-11	7
10	Chile	11	-13	6

Venezuela

All competitions

World Cup Qualifying

Last Game: Venezuela 1-1 Brazil
Thursday, November 14 at 9pm in World Cup Qualifying - South America

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	11	13	22
2	Uruguay	11	8	19
3	Colombia	11	6	19
4	Ecuador	11	6	19
5	Brazil	11	6	17
6	Paraguay	11	1	16
7	Venezuela	11	-2	12
8	Bolivia	11	-14	12
9	Peru	11	-11	7
10	Chile	11	-13	6

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chile win with a probability of 45.35%. A win for Venezuela had a probability of 27.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chile win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest Venezuela win was 0-1 (9.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chile would win this match.

Result
Chile	Draw	Venezuela
45.35% ( -0.65)	26.95% ( -0.1)	27.7% ( 0.75)

Both teams to score 48.25% (

0.78)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.56% (

0.76)

56.44% (

-0.76)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.55% (

0.61)

77.44% (

-0.61)

Chile Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.19% (

0.02)

24.81% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.6% (

0.02)

59.39% (

-0.03)

Venezuela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.18% (

1.03)

35.82% (

-1.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.4% (

1.04)

72.6% (

-1.04)

Score Analysis

Chile 45.34%

Venezuela 27.7%

Draw 26.94%

Chile	Draw	Venezuela
1-0 @ 12.38% ( -0.36) 2-1 @ 8.86% 2-0 @ 8.63% ( -0.25) 3-1 @ 4.12% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.01% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 1.44% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.4% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.38% Total : 45.34%	1-1 @ 12.71% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.89% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.79% Total : 26.94%	0-1 @ 9.13% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.53% ( 0.18) 0-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.09) Other @ 1.97% Total : 27.7%