Lugo have showcased great defensive performances so far in the Copa del Rey, but that is going to be tested to the maximum on Saturday. Ultimately, the attacking quality of Atletico Madrid should be too much for their opponents, with the La Liga side expected to go through comfortably. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 49.25%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 25.24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Lugo win it was 1-0 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Lugo	Draw	Atletico Madrid
25.24% ( -0.01)	25.5% ( -0.03)	49.25% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 50.56% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.5% (

0.13)

52.49% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.83% (

0.11)

74.16% (

-0.11)

Lugo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.26% (

0.06)

35.73% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.49% (

0.06)

72.5% (

-0.06)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.67% (

0.07)

21.33% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.71% (

0.11)

54.28% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Lugo 25.25%

Atletico Madrid 49.25%

Draw 25.49%

Lugo	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 7.84% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.24% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.14% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.39% Other @ 1.95% Total : 25.25%	1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.62% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.49%	0-1 @ 11.77% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.1% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.82% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 4.69% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.4% Total : 49.25%