Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 49.25%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 25.24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Lugo win it was 1-0 (7.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Lugo	Draw	Atletico Madrid
25.24% ( -0.01)	25.5% ( -0.03)	49.25% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 50.56% (

0.09)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.5% (

0.13)

52.49% (

-0.13)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.83% (

0.11)

74.16% (

-0.11)

Lugo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.26% (

0.06)

35.73% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.49% (

0.06)

72.5% (

-0.06)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.67% (

0.07)

21.33% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.71% (

0.11)

54.28% (

-0.11)

Score Analysis

Lugo 25.25%

Atletico Madrid 49.25%

Draw 25.49%

Lugo	Draw	Atletico Madrid
1-0 @ 7.84% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.24% ( 0) 2-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.14% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.39% Other @ 1.95% Total : 25.25%	1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.62% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.49%	0-1 @ 11.77% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.36% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 9.1% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 4.82% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 4.69% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.86% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.81% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.4% Total : 49.25%