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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 29.85% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 0-1 (8.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | Colchester United |
| 43.92% ( | 26.23% ( | 29.85% ( |
| Both teams to score 51.64% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.33% ( | 52.67% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.69% ( | 74.31% ( |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.15% ( | 23.85% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.97% ( | 58.03% ( |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.81% ( | 32.18% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.33% ( | 68.67% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Swindon Town | Draw | Colchester United |
| 1-0 @ 11% 2-1 @ 8.94% ( 2-0 @ 7.89% ( 3-1 @ 4.27% ( 3-0 @ 3.77% ( 3-2 @ 2.42% ( 4-1 @ 1.53% ( 4-0 @ 1.35% ( Other @ 2.75% Total : 43.92% | 1-1 @ 12.47% 0-0 @ 7.68% ( 2-2 @ 5.07% 3-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.23% | 0-1 @ 8.7% ( 1-2 @ 7.07% ( 0-2 @ 4.93% ( 1-3 @ 2.67% ( 2-3 @ 1.92% ( 0-3 @ 1.86% ( Other @ 2.7% Total : 29.85% |