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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 45.64%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 29.31% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.24%) and 2-0 (7.71%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| MK Dons | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 45.64% ( | 25.04% | 29.31% ( |
| Both teams to score 55.12% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52% ( | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.83% | 70.17% |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.94% ( | 21.06% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.13% ( | 53.87% ( |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.83% ( | 30.17% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.67% ( | 66.32% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| MK Dons | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 9.9% 2-1 @ 9.24% 2-0 @ 7.71% ( 3-1 @ 4.8% ( 3-0 @ 4% 3-2 @ 2.87% 4-1 @ 1.87% 4-0 @ 1.56% 4-2 @ 1.12% Other @ 2.58% Total : 45.64% | 1-1 @ 11.86% 0-0 @ 6.36% 2-2 @ 5.54% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.04% | 0-1 @ 7.62% 1-2 @ 7.11% 0-2 @ 4.56% ( 1-3 @ 2.84% ( 2-3 @ 2.21% 0-3 @ 1.82% Other @ 3.16% Total : 29.31% |