Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for MK Dons had a probability of 37.73% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.21%) and 0-2 (5.53%). The likeliest MK Dons win was 2-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.