Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 41.09%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 31.78% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (9.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Almeria | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 41.09% ( | 27.13% | 31.78% |
| Both teams to score 49.72% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.48% | 55.52% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.3% | 76.7% |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.41% | 26.59% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.2% | 61.8% ( |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.72% | 32.28% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.22% | 68.78% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Almeria | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 11.36% 2-1 @ 8.52% 2-0 @ 7.53% 3-1 @ 3.76% 3-0 @ 3.33% 3-2 @ 2.13% 4-1 @ 1.25% 4-0 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.11% Total : 41.08% | 1-1 @ 12.85% 0-0 @ 8.58% 2-2 @ 4.82% Other @ 0.88% Total : 27.13% | 0-1 @ 9.7% 1-2 @ 7.27% 0-2 @ 5.49% 1-3 @ 2.74% 0-3 @ 2.07% 2-3 @ 1.82% Other @ 2.7% Total : 31.78% |