Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Betis win with a probability of 43.15%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Betis win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.73%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Betis would win this match.