Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 60.46%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 17.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.17%) and 1-2 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.