Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 41.04%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.41%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 2-1 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Villarreal |
| 34.26% ( | 24.7% ( | 41.04% ( |
| Both teams to score 58.43% ( |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.37% ( | 44.63% ( |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.01% ( | 66.99% ( |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.67% ( | 25.33% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.89% ( | 60.11% ( |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.25% ( | 21.75% ( |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.07% ( | 54.94% ( |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Villarreal |
| 2-1 @ 7.93% ( 1-0 @ 7.57% ( 2-0 @ 5.2% ( 3-1 @ 3.63% ( 3-2 @ 2.77% ( 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 4-1 @ 1.25% ( 4-2 @ 0.95% ( Other @ 2.6% Total : 34.26% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 2-2 @ 6.04% ( 0-0 @ 5.51% ( 3-3 @ 1.41% ( Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.7% | 1-2 @ 8.8% ( 0-1 @ 8.4% ( 0-2 @ 6.41% ( 1-3 @ 4.48% ( 0-3 @ 3.26% ( 2-3 @ 3.07% ( 1-4 @ 1.71% ( 0-4 @ 1.24% ( 2-4 @ 1.17% ( Other @ 2.5% Total : 41.04% |