MX23RW : Sunday, March 3 18:24:47| >> :600:776267:776267:
AZ Alkmaar
Europa Conference League | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 16, 2023 at 8pm UK
AFAS Stadion
Lazio logo
AZ
2 - 1
Lazio
Karlsson (28'), Pavlidis (62')
Milos (2')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Anderson (21')
Vecino (42'), Pellegrini (47')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Lazio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Lazio

AZ are unblemished on their turf in Europe, and that run of victories is likely to continue against a Lazio side expected to be without the sidelined Immobile. Sarri's men have struggled for goals on their travels on the continent all season, making the Dutch side the likelier winner on the night and on aggregate. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.79%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 23.71%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (7.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ AlkmaarDrawLazio
51.79% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01) 24.5%23.71% (0.0040000000000013 0)
Both teams to score 52.02% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.2% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)49.8% (0.0010000000000048 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.2% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)71.8% (0.0019999999999953 0)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.79% (-0.0050000000000097 -0.01)19.21% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.1% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)50.9% (0.0020000000000024 0)
Lazio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.38%35.61% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.62% (0.0030000000000001 0)72.38% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Score Analysis
    AZ Alkmaar 51.78%
    Lazio 23.71%
    Draw 24.5%
AZ AlkmaarDrawLazio
1-0 @ 11.28%
2-1 @ 9.61%
2-0 @ 9.31% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 5.29% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 5.12% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-2 @ 2.73%
4-1 @ 2.18% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-0 @ 2.11%
4-2 @ 1.13% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 3.03%
Total : 51.78%
1-1 @ 11.65%
0-0 @ 6.84%
2-2 @ 4.96%
3-3 @ 0.94%
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.5%
0-1 @ 7.06% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-2 @ 6.02%
0-2 @ 3.65% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-3 @ 2.07%
2-3 @ 1.71% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-3 @ 1.26% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 1.95%
Total : 23.71%

How you voted: AZ vs Lazio

AZ Alkmaar
62.7%
Draw
11.9%
Lazio
25.4%
134
Head to Head
Mar 7, 2023 5.45pm
Round of 16
Lazio
1-2
AZ
Pedro (18')
Lasicki (90+2')
Pavlidis (45'), Milos (62')
Clasie (72'), Milos (74')
rhs 2.0
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