Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 53.71%. A win for Apollon Limassol had a probability of 23.89% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.65%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Apollon Limassol win was 2-1 (6.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.