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UEFA Conference League

AZ Alkmaar
Conference League | Group Stage
Sep 15, 2022 at 5.45pm UK
AFAS Stadion

AZ
4 - 1
Vaduz

Barasi (19'), Beukema (81'), Sugawara (90+2'), de Wit (90+5')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Goelzer (22')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Vaduz, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

Last Six:
Last Game: AZ 1-1 FC Twente
Sunday, September 11 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Vaduz

Last Six:
    Last Game: Vaduz 0-0 Apollon Limassol
    Thursday, September 8 at 8pm in Europa Conference League

    Data Analysis

    Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for Vaduz had a probability of 27.99% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

    The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.34%). The likeliest Vaduz win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

    Result
    AZ AlkmaarDrawVaduz
    46.08% (0.027000000000001 0.03)25.93% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)27.99% (-0.032 -0.03)
    Both teams to score 51.46% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
    Goals
    Over 2.5Under 2.5
    47.62% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)52.37% (0.041000000000004 0.04)
    Over 3.5Under 3.5
    25.94% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)74.05% (0.031999999999996 0.03)
    AZ Alkmaar Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    77.3% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)22.69% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    43.65% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)56.35% (0.0079999999999956 0.01)
    Vaduz Goals
    Over 0.5Under 0.5
    66.57% (-0.046000000000006 -0.05)33.43% (0.048999999999999 0.05)
    Over 1.5Under 1.5
    29.94% (-0.050999999999998 -0.05)70.06% (0.052000000000007 0.05)
    Score Analysis
        AZ Alkmaar 46.08%
        Vaduz 27.99%
        Draw 25.92%
    AZ AlkmaarDrawVaduz
    1-0 @ 11.25% (0.02 0.02)
    2-1 @ 9.14%
    2-0 @ 8.34% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
    3-1 @ 4.52%
    3-0 @ 4.13% (0.0049999999999999 0)
    3-2 @ 2.48% (-0.004 -0)
    4-1 @ 1.68%
    4-0 @ 1.53% (0.002 0)
    4-2 @ 0.92% (-0.002 -0)
    Other @ 2.1%
    Total : 46.08%
    		1-1 @ 12.32%
    0-0 @ 7.59% (0.012 0.01)
    2-2 @ 5.01% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
    3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.002 -0)
    Other @ 0.1%
    Total : 25.92%
    		0-1 @ 8.31% (0.0020000000000007 0)
    1-2 @ 6.75% (-0.008 -0.01)
    0-2 @ 4.55% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
    1-3 @ 2.47% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
    2-3 @ 1.83% (-0.004 -0)
    0-3 @ 1.66% (-0.004 -0)
    Other @ 2.41%
    Total : 27.99%

    How you voted: AZ vs Vaduz

    AZ Alkmaar
    88.5%
    Draw
    8.2%
    Vaduz
    3.3%
    61