Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 58.8%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Cambuur had a probability of 20.42%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.52%) and 0-1 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a Cambuur win it was 2-1 (5.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.