Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 62.44%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 16.54%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Go Ahead Eagles win it was 0-1 (5.01%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.