Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Dundee United had a probability of 37.25% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.27%) and 0-2 (5.92%). The likeliest Dundee United win was 2-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.