Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 50.08%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 25.32% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.77%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 0-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.