UEFA Conference League

Conference League | Playoffs | 1st Leg

Aug 18, 2022 at 8pm UK

AFAS Stadion

AZ
4 - 0
Gil Vicente

(AZ Alkmaar win 6-1 on aggregate)

de Wit (24'), Lahdo (78'), Pavlidis (85'), de Wit (89')
Milos (43'), Beukema (43'), de Wit (74'), Pavlidis (75')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Gomes (43'), Aburjania (57'), Boselli (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between AZ Alkmaar and Gil Vicente, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AZ Alkmaar

Last Six:

Last Game: Sparta 2-3 AZ
Sunday, August 14 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
4	FC Twente	2	4	6
5	AZ Alkmaar	2	3	6
6	Feyenoord	2	3	4

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 58.27%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 19.57%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (5.53%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Gil Vicente
58.27% ( 0.25)	22.16% ( -0.01)	19.57% ( -0.25)

Both teams to score 53.74% (

-0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.31% (

-0.33)

44.69% (

0.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.94% (

-0.32)

67.05% (

0.32)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.96% (

-0.03)

15.03% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.48% (

-0.06)

43.52% (

0.06)

Gil Vicente Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.25% (

-0.45)

36.75% (

0.45)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.46% (

-0.45)

73.54% (

0.45)

Score Analysis

AZ Alkmaar 58.26%

Gil Vicente 19.57%

Draw 22.16%

AZ Alkmaar	Draw	Gil Vicente
1-0 @ 10.46% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 9.93% 2-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.12) 3-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.07) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.13% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.6% Total : 58.26%	1-1 @ 10.48% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.16%	0-1 @ 5.53% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.7% Total : 19.57%