Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Riga FC had a probability of 35.23% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest Riga FC win was 0-1 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.