Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 52.59%. A win for Dnipro-1 had a probability of 24.41% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.18%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Dnipro-1 win was 2-1 (6.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.