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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.83%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.58%) and 0-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-0 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
Result | ||
FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
23.5% ( 0.16) | 24.67% ( 0.02) | 51.83% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 51.27% ( 0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.32% ( 0.06) | 50.67% ( -0.06) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.42% ( 0.05) | 72.58% ( -0.05) |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.71% ( 0.17) | 36.29% ( -0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.93% ( 0.18) | 73.07% ( -0.18) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.46% ( -0.05) | 19.53% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.57% ( -0.08) | 51.43% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 7.19% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 5.95% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.01% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.84% Total : 23.5% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.99% Total : 24.67% | 0-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 9.58% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 9.45% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 5.22% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 5.15% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 2.13% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.1% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.08% ( 0) Other @ 2.91% Total : 51.83% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 15 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 12 | 44 | 42 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 35 |
3 | Ajax | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 33 |
4 | Feyenoord | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 32 |
5 | FC Twente | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 28 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 26 |
7 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 22 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 21 |
9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 19 |
10 | Heerenveen | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 18 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 16 |
12 | Willem II | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 16 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
14 | Groningen | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 6 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 6 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |