Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 51.83%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.58%) and 0-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-0 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.