/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fazlog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F10%2Fexclog.png)
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Sven Mijnans
20'
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Jesper Karlsson
27'
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Sven Mijnans
30'
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Jens Odgaard
35'
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Vangelis Pavlidis
38'
AZ Alkmaar vs SBV Excelsior - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F23%2F03%2Fpascal-jansen.jpg)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 74.7%. A draw had a probability of 15.6% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.73%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.32%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result
AZ Alkmaar
74.7%
▲
(+0.42)
Draw
15.57%
▼
(-0.26)
SBV Excelsior
9.73%
▼
(-0.17)
Both Teams to Score:
50.39%
▲
(+0.30)
Goals
Over 2.5
64.16%
▲
(+0.72)
Under 2.5
35.83%
▼
(-0.72)
Over 3.5
42.08%
▲
(+0.79)
Under 3.5
57.91%
▼
(-0.79)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5
91.87%
▲
(+0.27)
Under 0.5
8.13%
▼
(-0.27)
Over 1.5
71.47%
▲
(+0.66)
Under 1.5
28.52%
▼
(-0.66)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5
54.85%
▲
(+0.17)
Under 0.5
45.14%
▼
(-0.17)
Over 1.5
18.95%
▲
(+0.13)
Under 1.5
81.05%
▼
(-0.13)
Score analysis
AZ Alkmaar
74.69%
Draw
15.57%
SBV Excelsior
9.73%
AZ Alkmaar
2-0
@
11.55%
▼
(-0.12)
3-0 @ 9.67% ▲ (+0.03)
1-0 @ 9.21% ▼ (-0.21)
2-1 @ 9.19% ▼ (-0.05)
3-1 @ 7.69% ▲ (+0.06)
4-0 @ 6.07% ▲ (+0.10)
4-1 @ 4.83% ▲ (+0.10)
3-2 @ 3.06% ▲ (+0.04)
5-0 @ 3.05% ▲ (+0.09)
5-1 @ 2.42% ▲ (+0.08)
4-2 @ 1.92% ▲ (+0.05)
6-0 @ 1.27% ▲ (+0.06)
6-1 @ 1.01% ▼ (-95.79)
Other @ 3.76%
Total : 74.69%
3-0 @ 9.67% ▲ (+0.03)
1-0 @ 9.21% ▼ (-0.21)
2-1 @ 9.19% ▼ (-0.05)
3-1 @ 7.69% ▲ (+0.06)
4-0 @ 6.07% ▲ (+0.10)
4-1 @ 4.83% ▲ (+0.10)
3-2 @ 3.06% ▲ (+0.04)
5-0 @ 3.05% ▲ (+0.09)
5-1 @ 2.42% ▲ (+0.08)
4-2 @ 1.92% ▲ (+0.05)
6-0 @ 1.27% ▲ (+0.06)
6-1 @ 1.01% ▼ (-95.79)
Other @ 3.76%
Total : 74.69%
Draw
1-1
@
7.32%
▼
(-0.14)
0-0 @ 3.67% ▼ (-0.14)
2-2 @ 3.66% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.92%
Total : 15.57%
0-0 @ 3.67% ▼ (-0.14)
2-2 @ 3.66% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 0.92%
Total : 15.57%
SBV Excelsior
0-1
@
2.92%
▼
(-0.10)
1-2 @ 2.91% ▼ (-0.05)
0-2 @ 1.16% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 9.73%
1-2 @ 2.91% ▼ (-0.05)
0-2 @ 1.16% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 9.73%
