Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 52.06%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 24.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.64%) and 0-2 (8.52%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 (6.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.