Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Go Ahead Eagles win with a probability of 57.05%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 20.62%.
The most likely scoreline for a Go Ahead Eagles win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Go Ahead Eagles would win this match.