Eredivisie | Gameweek 11

Oct 23, 2022 at 11.15am UK

Excelsior
2 - 1
AZ

Horemans (6'), Azarkan (31')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Sugawara (48')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between SBV Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

SBV Excelsior

All competitions

Last Game: Ajax 7-1 Excelsior
Sunday, October 16 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: AZ 1-3 Feyenoord
Sunday, October 16 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 61.52%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.18%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.32%) and 0-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.

Result
SBV Excelsior	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
18.18% ( 0.4)	20.3% ( 0.13)	61.52% ( -0.52)

Both teams to score 57.55% (

0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.57% (

0.08)

38.43% (

-0.07)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.28% (

0.08)

60.72% (

-0.08)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.43% (

0.48)

34.56% (

-0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.72% (

0.51)

71.28% (

-0.5)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.95% (

-0.12)

12.04% (

0.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.46% (

-0.26)

37.53% (

0.26)

Score Analysis

SBV Excelsior 18.18%

AZ Alkmaar 61.52%

Draw 20.3%

SBV Excelsior	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.81% Total : 18.18%	1-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.26% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.3%	1-2 @ 9.91% ( -0) 0-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 6.99% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 6.58% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 3.71% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 3.7% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 3.48% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.97% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 1.47% ( -0.04) Other @ 4.01% Total : 61.52%