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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 61.52%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.18%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.32%) and 0-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
Result | ||
SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
18.18% ( 0.4) | 20.3% ( 0.13) | 61.52% ( -0.52) |
Both teams to score 57.55% ( 0.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.57% ( 0.08) | 38.43% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.28% ( 0.08) | 60.72% ( -0.08) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.43% ( 0.48) | 34.56% ( -0.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.72% ( 0.51) | 71.28% ( -0.5) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.95% ( -0.12) | 12.04% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.46% ( -0.26) | 37.53% ( 0.26) |
Score Analysis |
SBV Excelsior | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
2-1 @ 4.97% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 1.86% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.81% Total : 18.18% | 1-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.26% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.2% Total : 20.3% | 1-2 @ 9.91% ( -0) 0-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 6.99% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 6.58% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 3.71% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 3.7% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 3.48% ( -0.08) 2-4 @ 1.97% ( 0.01) 1-5 @ 1.57% ( -0.02) 0-5 @ 1.47% ( -0.04) Other @ 4.01% Total : 61.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
7 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 59 | 47 | 12 | 47 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 66 | -20 | 26 |
17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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