Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 0-1 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortuna Sittard in this match.