Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 34.46% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (6.5%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.