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May 18, 2022 at 5.45pm UK
SBV Excelsior
3 - 0
Heracles
Azarkan (21'), Dallinga (74'), Driouech (85')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Schoofs (29')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Eredivisie playoff clash between SBV Excelsior and Heracles, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Heracles 1-3 SBV Excelsior
Saturday, May 21 at 7pm in Eredivisie Promotion Playoffs

We said: SBV Excelsior 1-2 Heracles

While the home side will no doubt be full of confidence, we cannot ignore the fact that they have not exactly found it easy posting wins of late. With that in mind, Heracles' superior quality should prove key, and they would be more than satisfied if they establish a narrow lead before the second leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 52.1%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 24.04% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.71%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest Heracles win was 0-1 (6.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.

Result
SBV ExcelsiorDrawHeracles
52.1% (-0.835 -0.84) 23.86% (0.164 0.16) 24.04% (0.671 0.67)
Both teams to score 54.42% (0.25 0.25)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.2% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)46.8% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.94% (-0.039000000000001 -0.04)69.06% (0.040000000000006 0.04)
SBV Excelsior Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.05% (-0.32599999999999 -0.33)17.95% (0.328 0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.22% (-0.566 -0.57)48.78% (0.568 0.57)
Heracles Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.33% (0.566 0.57)33.67% (-0.565 -0.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.67% (0.611 0.61)70.33% (-0.61 -0.61)
Score Analysis
    SBV Excelsior 52.1%
    Heracles 24.04%
    Draw 23.85%
SBV ExcelsiorDrawHeracles
1-0 @ 10.38% (-0.09 -0.09)
2-1 @ 9.71% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
2-0 @ 8.92% (-0.176 -0.18)
3-1 @ 5.56% (-0.082 -0.08)
3-0 @ 5.11% (-0.157 -0.16)
3-2 @ 3.02% (0.0020000000000002 0)
4-1 @ 2.39% (-0.062 -0.06)
4-0 @ 2.19% (-0.092 -0.09)
4-2 @ 1.3% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 3.53%
Total : 52.1%
1-1 @ 11.29% (0.069999999999999 0.07)
0-0 @ 6.04% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.28% (0.06 0.06)
3-3 @ 1.1% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 23.85%
0-1 @ 6.58% (0.112 0.11)
1-2 @ 6.15% (0.134 0.13)
0-2 @ 3.58% (0.115 0.12)
1-3 @ 2.23% (0.082 0.08)
2-3 @ 1.92% (0.05 0.05)
0-3 @ 1.3% (0.061 0.06)
Other @ 2.29%
Total : 24.04%

How you voted: SBV Excelsior vs Heracles

SBV Excelsior
60.0%
Draw
20.0%
Heracles
20.0%
5
Head to Head
May 12, 2019 1.30pm
Heracles
4-5
SBV Excelsior
Dalmau (23', 51', 59'), Duarte (62')
Rossmann (43')
Omarsson (4', 45', 91'), Mattheij (71'), Eckert (89')
Dec 22, 2018 7.45pm
Apr 18, 2018 6.45pm
SBV Excelsior
2-2
Heracles
Messaoud (7'), Van Duinen (51' pen.)
Messaoud (58'), de Wijs (93')
Monteiro (92', 94')
Droste (7')
van Ooijen (49')
Aug 26, 2017 7.45pm
Heracles
2-2
SBV Excelsior
Kuwas (15'), Gladon (52')
Propper (10')
Bruins (16'), Caenepeel (63')
Bruins (43'), Koolwijk (90')
Hadouir (90')
Feb 18, 2017 6.45pm
Heracles
4-0
SBV Excelsior
Kuwas (43'), Bruns (58'), Te Wierik (66'), Peterson (85')
Propper (59')

Mattheij (27'), Bruins (36')
Mattheij (35')

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