Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 64.88%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 14.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.56%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (5.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.