Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 61.75%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 16.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.67%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.