Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 57.52%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Dnipro-1 had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.93%), while for a Dnipro-1 win it was 0-1 (6.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.