Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 59.12%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.53%) and 1-0 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 1-2 (5.39%). The actual scoreline of 5-5 was predicted with a 0% likelihood.