Eredivisie | Gameweek 19

Jan 29, 2023 at 1.30pm UK

Excelsior
1 - 4
Ajax

El Yaakoubi (36')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Tadic (15' pen.), Klaassen (45'), Kudus (61'), Rensch (83')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between SBV Excelsior and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

SBV Excelsior

All competitions

Last Game: Utrecht 1-0 Excelsior
Wednesday, January 25 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ajax 1-1 Volendam
Thursday, January 26 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 74.94%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 10.65%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.72%) and 1-3 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.2%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
SBV Excelsior	Draw	Ajax
10.65% ( -0.44)	14.41% ( -0.17)	74.94% ( 0.61)

Both teams to score 59.47% (

-1.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

73.38% (

-0.5)

26.62% (

0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

52.99% (

-0.64)

47.01% (

0.65)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.26% (

-1.11)

36.74% (

1.12)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.47% (

-1.13)

73.53% (

1.13)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

94.01% (

-0)

5.99% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

77.15% (

-0.01)

22.85% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

SBV Excelsior 10.65%

Ajax 74.94%

Draw 14.41%

SBV Excelsior	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 2.2% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.74% Total : 10.65%	1-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.27% Total : 14.41%	1-2 @ 8.73% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.27) 1-3 @ 8.19% ( 0) 0-3 @ 8.18% ( 0.25) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( 0.19) 1-4 @ 5.77% ( 0) 0-4 @ 5.76% ( 0.17) 2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.12) 1-5 @ 3.25% ( -0) 0-5 @ 3.24% ( 0.1) 2-4 @ 2.89% ( -0.09) 2-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.05) 1-6 @ 1.52% ( -0) 0-6 @ 1.52% ( 0.04) 3-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.06) Other @ 4.28% Total : 74.94%