Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 60.24%. A draw had a probability of 20.3% and a win for Emmen had a probability of 19.42%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.66%) and 0-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Emmen win it was 2-1 (5.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.