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Conference League | Round of 16 | 1st Leg
Mar 7, 2023 at 5.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
AZ Alkmaar

Lazio
1 - 2
AZ

Pedro (18')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Pavlidis (45'), Milos (62')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Europa Conference League clash between Lazio and AZ Alkmaar, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Napoli 0-1 Lazio
Friday, March 3 at 7.45pm in Serie A

AZ Alkmaar

All competitions
Europa Conference League
Last Game: Vitesse 0-1 AZ
Friday, March 3 at 7pm in Eredivisie

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 (8.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.

Result
LazioDrawAZ Alkmaar
41.85% (-0.067 -0.07)26.05% (0.096999999999998 0.1)32.1% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
Both teams to score 53.2% (-0.327 -0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.89% (-0.419 -0.42)51.11% (0.416 0.42)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.04% (-0.369 -0.37)72.96% (0.366 0.37)
Lazio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.81% (-0.218 -0.22)24.19% (0.215 0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.48% (-0.311 -0.31)58.52% (0.308 0.31)
AZ Alkmaar Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.17% (-0.232 -0.23)29.83% (0.228 0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.09% (-0.281 -0.28)65.91% (0.27800000000001 0.28)
Score Analysis
    Lazio 41.84%
    AZ Alkmaar 32.1%
    Draw 26.04%
LazioDrawAZ Alkmaar
1-0 @ 10.23% (0.1 0.1)
2-1 @ 8.79% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-0 @ 7.27% (0.03 0.03)
3-1 @ 4.16% (-0.035 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.44% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.52% (-0.038 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.48% (-0.022 -0.02)
4-0 @ 1.22% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.74%
Total : 41.84%
1-1 @ 12.38% (0.050000000000001 0.05)
0-0 @ 7.21% (0.119 0.12)
2-2 @ 5.32% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-3 @ 1.02% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.04%
0-1 @ 8.73% (0.09 0.09)
1-2 @ 7.49% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)
0-2 @ 5.28% (0.021 0.02)
1-3 @ 3.02% (-0.026 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.15% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-3 @ 2.13% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 0.91% (-0.014 -0.01)
Other @ 2.39%
Total : 32.1%

How you voted: Lazio vs AZ

Lazio
81.6%
Draw
10.9%
AZ Alkmaar
7.5%
239