Lazio have conceded the joint-fewest goals in the first half of games across Europe's top five leagues (four, level with Barcelona), while Samp have scored just five in the first half all season - no team has fewer.
Logic dictates, then, that the home side should comfortably keep their visitors at bay before one of many attacking options strikes at the other end: cue more misery for Sampdoria.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 67.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 12.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.66%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.34%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
-0.04) 
0.09) 
