Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 59.55%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 18.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.41%) and 1-2 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Salernitana win it was 1-0 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.