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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 40.53%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 35.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.89%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
Result | ||
Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heerenveen |
40.53% ( -0.43) | 23.53% ( 0.06) | 35.94% ( 0.37) |
Both teams to score 63.12% ( -0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.33% ( -0.23) | 38.66% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.03% ( -0.25) | 60.97% ( 0.24) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.55% ( -0.29) | 19.45% ( 0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.71% ( -0.48) | 51.29% ( 0.48) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.35% ( 0.09) | 21.64% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.23% ( 0.13) | 54.77% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Heerenveen |
2-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.64% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.61% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.08% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.29% Total : 40.53% | 1-1 @ 10.54% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.61% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.21% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 1.84% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 8.07% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 6.44% ( 0.09) 0-2 @ 4.93% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 4.12% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 3.37% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.58% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.29% ( 0) 0-4 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.67% Total : 35.94% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 15 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 56 | 12 | 44 | 42 |
2 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 15 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 35 |
3 | Ajax | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 16 | 16 | 33 |
4 | Feyenoord | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 35 | 16 | 19 | 32 |
5 | FC Twente | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 28 |
6 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 26 |
7 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 22 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 21 |
9 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 19 |
10 | Heerenveen | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 18 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 16 |
12 | Willem II | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 16 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 24 | -9 | 16 |
14 | Groningen | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
17 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 37 | -22 | 6 |
18 | Almere CityAlmere City | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 6 |
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