Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 46.25%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 28.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-2 (7.74%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-0 (7.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.