Championship

Championship | Gameweek 24

Dec 29, 2024 at 5.45pm UK

Pride Park Stadium

Derby
0 - 1
Leeds

Harness (32')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Aaronson (79')
Ampadu (69')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Championship clash between Derby County and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Derby 2-1 West Brom
Thursday, December 26 at 5.30pm in Championship

Goals
for

Leeds United

All competitions

Last Game: Stoke 0-2 Leeds
Thursday, December 26 at 8pm in Championship

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 48.42%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 26.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.37%) and 0-2 (8.7%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (7.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Leeds United in this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Leeds United
26.27% ( -1.78)	25.31% ( -0.69)	48.42% ( 2.47)

Both teams to score 52.04% (

0.76)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49% (

1.63)

51% (

-1.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.14% (

1.42)

72.86% (

-1.42)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.93% (

-0.55)

34.07% (

0.55)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.25% (

-0.6)

70.75% (

0.6)

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.92% (

1.79)

21.08% (

-1.79)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.11% (

2.71)

53.89% (

-2.71)

Score Analysis

Derby County 26.27%

Leeds United 48.41%

Draw 25.3%

Derby County	Draw	Leeds United
1-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.65) 2-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.27) 2-0 @ 4.16% ( -0.42) 3-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.18) Other @ 2.26% Total : 26.27%	1-1 @ 12.03% ( -0.33) 0-0 @ 7.18% ( -0.48) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.3%	0-1 @ 11.17% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 9.37% ( 0.25) 0-2 @ 8.7% ( 0.36) 1-3 @ 4.86% ( 0.38) 0-3 @ 4.52% ( 0.41) 2-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.17) 1-4 @ 1.89% ( 0.24) 0-4 @ 1.76% ( 0.24) 2-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.12) Other @ 2.5% Total : 48.41%