Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 50.34%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 26.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Almeria win was 1-2 (6.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.
Result | ||
Girona | Draw | Almeria |
50.34% ( 0.02) | 23.38% ( -0.01) | 26.28% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 58.36% ( 0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.34% ( 0.01) | 42.66% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.93% ( 0.01) | 65.06% ( -0.01) |
Girona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.94% ( 0.01) | 17.06% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.77% ( 0.02) | 47.23% ( -0.02) |
Almeria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.37% ( -0.01) | 29.63% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.32% ( -0.01) | 65.68% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Girona | Draw | Almeria |
2-1 @ 9.62% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.94% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.91% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.67% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.66% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.45% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.51% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.06% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.52% ( 0) Other @ 4.01% Total : 50.34% | 1-1 @ 10.87% 2-2 @ 5.85% 0-0 @ 5.06% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.4% Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.37% | 1-2 @ 6.61% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.15% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.74% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.68% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.37% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.52% ( -0) Other @ 3.22% Total : 26.28% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
3 | Barcelona | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64 | 37 | 27 | 70 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 58 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 33 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Valencia | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 43 |
11 | Osasuna | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 39 |
12 | Sevilla | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 38 |
13 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 33 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |