Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 61.78%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 16.76%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
Result | ||
Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Almeria |
61.78% ( 0.06) | 21.46% ( -0.01) | 16.76% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 50.68% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.89% ( -0.02) | 46.1% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.59% ( -0.02) | 68.4% ( 0.01) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.62% ( 0.01) | 14.38% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.73% ( 0.02) | 42.27% ( -0.03) |
Almeria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.19% ( -0.06) | 40.81% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
22.61% ( -0.06) | 77.38% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Almeria |
1-0 @ 11.38% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 11.03% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 6.39% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.46% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 3.1% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.87% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.34% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 61.78% | 1-1 @ 10.2% 0-0 @ 5.87% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.43% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.96% Total : 21.46% | 0-1 @ 5.26% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 4.57% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0) Other @ 1.88% Total : 16.76% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
3 | Barcelona | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 64 | 37 | 27 | 70 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 58 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 33 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Valencia | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 34 | 1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 43 |
11 | Osasuna | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 39 |
12 | Sevilla | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 38 |
13 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 33 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |