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La Liga | Gameweek 9
Oct 6, 2023 at 8pm UK
San Mames Barria
Almeria

Athletic Bilbao
3 - 0
Almeria

Guruzeta (10'), Garcia (63'), Sancet (81')
Herrera (52'), de Marcos (84')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Almeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions
Last Game: Real Sociedad 3-0 Athletic Bilbao
Saturday, September 30 at 8pm in La Liga

Almeria

All competitions
Last Game: Almeria 3-3 Granada
Sunday, October 1 at 1pm in La Liga

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 61.78%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 16.76%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.

Result
Athletic BilbaoDrawAlmeria
61.78% (0.058 0.06)21.46% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)16.76% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)
Both teams to score 50.68% (-0.045000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.89% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)46.1% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.59% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)68.4% (0.013000000000005 0.01)
Athletic Bilbao Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.62% (0.012999999999991 0.01)14.38% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.73% (0.024999999999999 0.02)42.27% (-0.026999999999994 -0.03)
Almeria Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
59.19% (-0.064 -0.06)40.81% (0.061 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.61% (-0.058 -0.06)77.38% (0.056000000000012 0.06)
Score Analysis
    Athletic Bilbao 61.78%
    Almeria 16.76%
    Draw 21.46%
Athletic BilbaoDrawAlmeria
1-0 @ 11.38% (0.020000000000001 0.02)
2-0 @ 11.03% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 9.89% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-0 @ 7.13% (0.015 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.39% (0.0019999999999998 0)
4-0 @ 3.46% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
4-1 @ 3.1% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.87% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.39% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
5-0 @ 1.34% (0.004 0)
5-1 @ 1.2% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.6%
Total : 61.78%
1-1 @ 10.2%
0-0 @ 5.87% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-2 @ 4.43% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.96%
Total : 21.46%
0-1 @ 5.26% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 4.57% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 2.36% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.37% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
2-3 @ 1.32% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 1.88%
Total : 16.76%

How you voted: Athletic Bilbao vs Almeria

Athletic Bilbao
87.8%
Draw
8.9%
Almeria
3.3%
90
Head to Head
Apr 22, 2023 3.15pm
Gameweek 30
Almeria
1-2
Athletic Bilbao
Centelles (90+2')
Williams (9'), De Marcos (56')
> Preview
Sep 30, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 7
Athletic Bilbao
4-0
Almeria
Williams (10'), Sancet (17'), Williams (62'), Vesga (84' pen.)
> Preview
Mar 21, 2015 9pm
Athletic Bilbao
2-1
Almeria
Etxeita (9'), Rico (26')
Gomez (19'), Laporte (85')
Balenziaga (47' og.)
Dubarbier (13'), Velez (48'), Soriano (80'), Hemed (90'), Partey (93')
Velez (91')
> Match Report
Oct 25, 2014 3pm
Almeria
0-1
Athletic Bilbao

Partey (13'), Verza (71')
Etxeitia (56')
Iraloa (54')
> Match Report
May 18, 2014 5pm
Almeria
0-0
Athletic Bilbao
Azeez (74')
Moran (17'), Etxebarria (32'), Balenziaga (35'), Laporte (56'), Herrera (90')
> Match Report