Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 61.78%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 16.76%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.03%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for an Almeria win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.