Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 67.74%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Getafe had a probability of 11.15%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.86%) and 3-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.52%), while for a Getafe win it was 0-1 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.