La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 1

Aug 12, 2023 at 8.30pm UK

San Mames Barria

Athletic Bilbao
0 - 2
Real Madrid

Muniain (4'), Vivian (67'), Williams (87')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Rodrygo (28'), Bellingham (36')
Alaba (76')

Reaction

Real Madrid's Eder Militao walks off after suffering an injury against Athletic Bilbao on August 12, 2023

Eder Militao suffers knee injury in Real Madrid win

Real Madrid defender Eder Militao suffers a sprained knee during his side's 2023-24 La Liga opener against Athletic Bilbao.

Aug 13, 08:58

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Athletic Bilbao

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Man Utd 1-1 Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, August 6 at 4pm in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Real Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Juventus 3-1 Real Madrid
Thursday, August 3 at 12.30am in Club Friendlies 1

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 39.27%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (9.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Real Madrid
34.24% ( 0.32)	26.49% ( 0.22)	39.27% ( -0.54)

Both teams to score 52.36% (

-0.64)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.55% (

-0.84)

52.45% (

0.85)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.88% (

-0.73)

74.12% (

0.73)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.9% (

-0.21)

29.1% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.98% (

-0.26)

65.02% (

0.26)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.86% (

-0.67)

26.14% (

0.68)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.78% (

-0.92)

61.21% (

0.92)

Score Analysis

Athletic Bilbao 34.24%

Real Madrid 39.27%

Draw 26.48%

Athletic Bilbao	Draw	Real Madrid
1-0 @ 9.39% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 7.78% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 3.2% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.15% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.55% Total : 34.24%	1-1 @ 12.59% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.48%	0-1 @ 10.2% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 6.85% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 3.78% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 3.06% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.09) 1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.07) 0-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.3% Total : 39.27%