Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 45.93%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Manchester United	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
45.93% ( -0.91)	24.85% ( 0.26)	29.22% ( 0.65)

Both teams to score 55.68% (

-0.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.76% (

-0.77)

47.23% (

0.77)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.54% (

-0.72)

69.46% (

0.72)

Manchester United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.37% (

-0.71)

20.62% (

0.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.82% (

-1.12)

53.18% (

1.12)

Athletic Bilbao Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.15% (

0.07)

29.84% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.07% (

0.09)

65.93% (

-0.09)

Score Analysis

Manchester United 45.93%

Athletic Bilbao 29.22%

Draw 24.84%

Manchester United	Draw	Athletic Bilbao
1-0 @ 9.72% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 7.67% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 4.88% ( -0.15) 3-0 @ 4.04% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 2.95% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.93% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.71% Total : 45.93%	1-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.61% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.84%	0-1 @ 7.44% ( 0.25) 1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 4.5% ( 0.16) 1-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.81% ( 0.07) Other @ 3.24% Total : 29.22%