Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 55.72%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 21.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.