Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 46.02%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.29%) and 0-2 (7.64%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-0 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.