Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 41.34%. A win for Lens had a probability of 34.04% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Lens win was 1-2 (7.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.