Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 57.51%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 18.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.71%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.4%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (6.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.