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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 47.42%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 24.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.81%), while for an AFC Wimbledon win it was 0-1 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
47.42% ( 0.03) | 28.12% ( -0.02) | 24.45% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 42.71% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
37.71% ( 0.03) | 62.29% ( -0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
18.05% ( 0.02) | 81.95% ( -0.03) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.55% ( 0.03) | 26.45% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.38% ( 0.04) | 61.62% ( -0.04) |
AFC Wimbledon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.07% ( 0) | 41.93% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.63% ( 0) | 78.37% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
1-0 @ 14.74% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.81% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.53% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.64% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.45% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 1.87% Total : 47.41% | 1-1 @ 12.81% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.08% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.71% ( 0) Other @ 0.51% Total : 28.11% | 0-1 @ 9.64% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.57% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.19% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.61% 0-3 @ 1.21% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 1.15% Total : 24.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 39 | 20 | 13 | 6 | 79 | 37 | 42 | 73 |
2 | Stockport CountyStockport | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 75 | 40 | 35 | 71 |
3 | Wrexham | 39 | 20 | 10 | 9 | 70 | 48 | 22 | 70 |
4 | MK Dons | 40 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 63 | 54 | 9 | 67 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 39 | 18 | 11 | 10 | 67 | 55 | 12 | 65 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 38 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 53 | 40 | 13 | 64 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 38 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 59 |
8 | Gillingham | 40 | 17 | 8 | 15 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 59 |
9 | AFC Wimbledon | 40 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 58 |
10 | Walsall | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 57 | 52 | 5 | 56 |
11 | Newport CountyNewport | 39 | 16 | 7 | 16 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 55 |
12 | Morecambe | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 59 | 68 | -9 | 54 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 39 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 54 |
14 | Notts County | 39 | 15 | 6 | 18 | 76 | 74 | 2 | 51 |
15 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 40 | 15 | 5 | 20 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 50 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 39 | 14 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 57 | -5 | 50 |
17 | Bradford CityBradford | 39 | 13 | 11 | 15 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 50 |
18 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 51 | 62 | -11 | 49 |
19 | Salford City | 40 | 12 | 11 | 17 | 60 | 73 | -13 | 47 |
20 | Swindon TownSwindon | 39 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 65 | 70 | -5 | 44 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 38 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 39 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 34 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 40 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 45 | 71 | -26 | 33 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 39 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 38 | 65 | -27 | 33 |
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